Local airfares have jumped by more than 100 per cent ahead of the Christmas season, as a surge in travel demand collides with a shortage of aircraft, leaving many passengers scrambling for limited seats.

Travellers are forced to consider alternative transport options, with numerous airlines already fully booked on busy routes.

The rising demand and fewer available aircraft may trigger fresh rounds of flight delays and cancellations through the festive period, aviation experts say.

Stakeholders worry that diaspora passengers may be the most hit, as many will struggle to connect to cities within Nigeria due to the scarcity of planes.

Checks on websites of various airlines show that some flights to sought-after local destinations such as Asaba, Anambra, Owerri and Port Harcourt are already fully booked from 20th of December to early January.

Those who managed to secure air tickets were asked to pay between N350,000 and N500,000 ? more than double the traditional airfares ? depending on the airline.

One way return flights from Lagos to Enugu cost between N350,000 and N400,000, depending on the airline.

In some cases, tickets cost as much as N600,000, depending on the availability of seats on the airlines.

Flights from Lagos to Abuja, which fly a very competitive route, are slightly cheaper, with prices ranging from N150,000 to N350,000 during the same period.

?Most of the local airlines operating from Lagos to frequently visited local destinations during Christmas are already fully booked. For those with seats, it is quite expensive to book now. Some tickets are going for as high as N500,000, which is above the reach of average Nigerians,? Ndukwe Ginika Ogechi, CEO, Geena Travels and Tours Limited, told BusinessDay.

Ogechi hinted that just like last year, if more aircraft are not brought in before Christmas, prices will still go up and passengers may not get flights to frequently visited destinations.

Passenger glut

In the past two years, stakeholders have raised concerns over passenger glut resulting from fleet reduction.

Airlines that sent their aircraft on maintenance have been unable to return them as a result of the skyrocketing costs due to foreign exchange scarcity.

Others were forced by the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, (NCAA) to ground their aircraft as they were unable to send them for maintenance, BusinessDay?s checks show.

Six years ago, there were just 10 domestic airlines operating on Nigerian routes. However, they had over 120 planes at that time.

Data obtained by BusinessDay from the NCAA last year show that domestic airlines operating in Nigeria had a total of 91 aircraft, including aircraft that have gone on maintenance.

In a recent paper, Charles Grant, chief financial officer, Aero Contractors, said one of the clearest signs that the aviation system requires intervention is the number of aircraft in service.

Air Peace vs SmartLynx

In a recent development, Air Peace, Nigeria?s largest carrier, disclosed that in the past weeks it has experienced several operational disruptions, resulting in flight delays and cancellations after its major lessor, SmartLynx Airlines, unlawfully withdrew three aircraft from its fleet.

?The disruptions were caused by the abrupt and unjustified withdrawal of four aircraft we wet-leased from SmartLynx Airlines. This withdrawal was done without prior notice, a clear violation of industry standards, and of the agreement between both parties,? said Nowel Ngala, chief commercial officer, Air Peace.

Ngala said the airline entered a wet-lease agreement with Smartlynx because 13 of its aircraft are currently undergoing scheduled maintenance abroad.

To avoid service gaps and ensure Nigerians could continue to travel conveniently, Air Peace leased aircraft from SmartLynx in a bid to support Nigerian passengers during peak travel periods, Ngala said.

He however assured that despite these setbacks, some of its aircraft have completed maintenance and are returning to service.

High maintenance costs and dollar-based leases in a system with a volatile forex market add up to grounded planes and thin operations.

Nigeria needs special vehicle

Samuel Caulcrick, former Rector of the Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), told BusinessDay that Nigeria has few options and must establish a special vehicle such as an aviation development bank that will make low-cost capital available to local operators in the aviation sector.

?As for preparation for Detty December, the operator will do whatever to fill the gaps, but not on favourable terms ? most likely expensive wet leases ? which may translate to unnecessary hikes in airfares,? Caulcrick added.

Alex Nwuba, president, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association of Nigeria/former chief executive officer of Associated Airlines, said the impact of the lingering scarcity will be premium pricing supported by stabilised core capacity on major routes.

?Airfares will be significantly high. The intense demand guarantees peak pricing. However, Air Peace?s successful re-introduction of maintenance-return aircraft will prevent the fares from spiralling into truly catastrophic territory, ensuring tickets are merely premium, not unavailable,? Nwuba, said.

He said the pressure to maintain schedules at maximum capacity, combined with potential seasonal Harmattan haze, means delays will be frequent and unavoidable. He added that Detty December travel will be operationally stressful, requiring passenger patience and flexibility.

?High airfares will funnel a large volume of passengers to road transport. This will lead to overcrowding and price hikes in the road sector, increasing overall travel time and security concerns for the holiday masses,? he said.

According to him, while international tickets are secured, the final domestic flight (e.g., Lagos to Enugu/Port Harcourt) will be extremely expensive and difficult to book last-minute.

Seyi Adewale, chief executive officer of Mainstream Cargo Limited, told BusinessDay that the impact of aircraft scarcity will be significant on the traveling passengers, noting that many with emotional, religious, and cultural attachments to this season need to travel.

?The impact includes high travel costs, flight cancellations or delays, and potentially missing specific dates or targeted events or activities. On the airline?s part, they will be under significant pressure, stress, and great criticism from the public, whereas the regulators? supervening authority and firmness will be put to test,? Adewale said. (BusinessDay)

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