With the defection of Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and indications that Taraba State Governor Agbu Kefas may soon follow the same path, the number of governors left in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may soon drop to a mere seven.

Those who may likely remain are Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, Umaru Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa, Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers, Ademola Adeleke of Osun, Dauda Lawan of Zamfara, and Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau.

By geopolitical distribution, the PDP now has no governor in the South East, which was once its strongest base. It currently controls only one state in the South-South, one in the North West, two in the South West, two in the North East, and one in the North Central.

Compared with the 12 governors the PDP had after the 2023 general elections, this means the party has lost nearly half of its state executives in less than two years. Edo was lost through an election, while the governors of Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Enugu defected to the ruling APC. Taraba is widely expected to follow soon.

Analysts note that this steady depletion in the ranks of PDP governors will inevitably affect the party?s strength, as the traditional cooperation and mutual support among governors of the same political family have weakened sharply. The PDP Governors? Forum, once a major force in national politics and a rallying platform for collective decision-making, has become almost voiceless amid lingering internal disputes.

Mounting pressure on first-term PDP governors

The most vulnerable in the shrinking PDP fold are the governors eligible for a second term, those of Plateau, Osun, Zamfara, and Rivers states.

For Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa, and Seyi Makinde of Oyo, who are serving their second and final terms, the political risk is minimal since they are not seeking re-election. But for their first-term colleagues, the stakes are much higher.

Without the support of a ruling government at the centre or the solidarity of fellow PDP governors, these leaders face daunting prospects as they approach the 2027 general elections or much earlier in the case of Osun, who faces a re-election battle next year. The usual cooperation where PDP governors rally round colleagues in off-cycle elections has greatly diminished.

Observers recall the recently concluded Anambra governorship election, where Prof Charles Soludo, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) candidate, triumphed by a wide margin and the PDP governors were largely invisible. That experience, analysts argue, illustrates the risks for governors seeking re-election under a weakened PDP.

Little wonder, there are reports that more PDP governors are now considering defection to the APC, viewing it as a more pragmatic path to survival in a rapidly changing political environment.

However, not everyone believes the defections will alter much in the long run. A PDP stalwart in Plateau State, Alex Kwapnoe, insists the movements are overrated.

?The defection of those governors does not mean anything,? he said. ?If you?re a governor and you have your people behind you, it doesn?t matter whether someone elsewhere is moving because they don?t control the votes.?

Similarly, a political analyst, Alhaji Buhari Yusuf, argues that the current wave of defections may not significantly shape the 2027 outcome. ?People are concerned about the economy and other issues that affect them directly,? he said. ?That is what will determine the voting pattern in 2027, not necessarily the defection of governors.?

Even so, the degree of pressure on the remaining PDP governors differs from state to state, depending on local dynamics and the balance of power between the PDP and the APC.

Osun

The first to face the challenge is Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun who faces a re-election battle in 2026. He faces a delicate political balancing act. Analysts note that President Bola Tinubu maintains a deep personal interest in Osun, having long regarded the state as a vital part of his political base as well as tracing his ancestral root to it. Thus, the APC?s loss of Osun in 2022 was interpreted as a symbolic weakening of Tinubu?s influence, the fate observers believe he may be keen to correct in 2026.

Though former governor and current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola, has shown little interest in running again, several aspirants, including the erstwhile APC National Secretary and former Deputy Governor of the state, Iyiola Omisore, are already jostling for the APC ticket. The internal struggle among these aspirants could create opportunities for Adeleke if some disenchanted factions decide to work with him.

Nonetheless, the talk of Adeleke defecting to the APC has been met with stiff resistance from influential figures within the ruling party, who see his potential entry as a threat to their ambitions. Reports suggest Adeleke once considered the ?Diri option?, a quiet shift of allegiance, but was blocked by powerful interests wary of his growing influence. He is now rumoured to be considering teaming up with former governor of the state, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who is now the national secretary of the opposition-led African Democratic Congress (ADC), as a more viable alternative because of the crisis in his party.

The Osun governorship election, due next year as one of the few off-cycle polls before 2027, will serve as a crucial test of the PDP?s resilience and the APC?s determination to reclaim lost ground in the South West.

Zamfara

Governor Dauda Lawal caused a major political upset in the North West in 2023 when he defeated an incumbent APC governor to reclaim the state for the PDP. For two decades, Zamfara had been loyal to opposition parties, from the ANPP to the APC, until the 2019 elections were nullified by the courts, handing victory to the PDP?s Bello Matawalle.

Matawalle later defected to the APC and lost to Lawal in 2023. As 2027 approaches, Lawal?s political standing remains relatively strong, but his isolation as the PDP?s lone governor in the North West exposes him to significant pressure. Analysts say he still enjoys the support of key elites, but uncertainty persists over whether Matawalle, now a minister, may return to challenge him.

Rivers

Governor Siminalayi Fubara?s political situation mirrors Adeleke?s but is complicated by the shadow of his predecessor and political rival, Nyesom Wike, now a minister in the APC-led federal government. Fubara reportedly made certain concessions to restore peace after months of political crisis that nearly paralysed governance in the state.

Political watchers say he feels betrayed by the lack of support from his PDP colleagues during his confrontation with Wike, which explains his rumoured interest in aligning with the APC. However, his dilemma lies in the fact that the same forces that constrain him within the PDP also dominate the APC at the federal level.

?In his case,? an analyst observed, ?it is like wherever you go, the problem follows you.? For Fubara, the challenge is not only about survival within the PDP but about finding political space to breathe under the watchful eyes of powerful opponents.

Plateau

Governor Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau also faces a complex political environment. At one point, reports suggested he was exploring defection to the APC but was reportedly stopped by forces loyal to the APC national chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, who commands strong influence through the state?s party structure.

Recently, the APC in Plateau issued a statement advising Mutfwang to ?remain where he is,? to which the governor responded by reaffirming his commitment to the PDP. Yet, critics accuse him of failing to rebuild the party after a series of court verdicts sacked several PDP lawmakers and officials.

Currently, the Plateau State House of Assembly is led by an APC speaker, while the majority of members also belong to the APC. Moreover, the APC has gained momentum through key federal appointments, including a minister, two senators, and several strategic positions, including the national chairman of the APC, strengthening its presence in the state.

Some analysts suggest that Mutfwang?s passive response to the defections may be strategic, aimed at building cross-party alliances ahead of a possible move to the ruling party. Ironically, this is precisely why some APC leaders have resisted his entry, believing the party can recapture the state without him.

Even so, Mutfwang retains a crucial advantage: strong support from the northern senatorial zone, whose leaders are determined to maintain power until 2031. They believe that returning the governorship to the central zone in 2027 would prematurely end their rotation. (Daily Trust)

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