By ZAGAZOLA MAKAMA

The Lake Chad Basin is witnessing a dangerous escalation in insurgent-on-insurgent warfare, as a fresh wave of violent clashes between rival jihadist factions Boko Haram?s Jama?atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda?awati wal-Jihad (JAS) and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) intensifies across strategic island strongholds and riverine settlement routes in Abadam and Kukawa Local Government Areas of Borno State.

Between 5 and 8 November 2025, Boko Haram?s Jama?atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda?awati wal-Jihad (JAS) launched a fierce coordinated assault on its rival faction, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), across a stretch of islands identified as Sahel 1, Dogon Chuku, Mangari, and linked riverine basins spanning Tumbun Gini ? Tumbun Dalo ? Tumbun Shanu ? Mangari ? Dumba in Abadam and Kukawa local government areas of Borno State.

The fighting was Intense. The objective was clear. JAS wants to erase ISWAP. Sources revealed that JAS fighters, led by commanders Hassan Buduma and Mohd Hassan, mobilised multiple watercraft loaded with fighters and heavy weapons, moving in waves from Tumbun Gini through the upper river basin to Tumbun Dalo, Tumbun Shanu, Mangari, Dumba and surrounding islands, a chain of sandy enclaves where humanitarian presence is almost non-existent.

In a scene described as ?an amphibious assault in insurgent style,? JAS fighters attacked ISWAP from the water, surprising them at dawn. ?This is not a misunderstanding, this is a takeover,? said one intelligence source familiar with the region.

However, after days of sustained fighting,

ISWAP fighters were forced to abandon their river camps scrambling for their lives.

The number of casualties remains unknown, but ISR reportedly picked up heat signatures of several bodies floating and others buried in shallow sand pits.

Multiple sources also confirmed that JAS deployed several motorized watercraft in a multi-axis assault, overrunning ISWAP clusters and pushing surviving fighters off the island perimeter into mainland hideouts around Ali Jillimari, Metele, Kangarwa, and Gudumbali in North of Borno.

While both groups share an extremist ideology, the battle has nothing to do with religion. It is about power. Control of the Lake Chad islands means control of millions of naira collected through extortion of fishermen and traders, they will also take control of the Arms and fuel smuggling corridors through Niger, Chad and Cameroon. They will also have mobility advantage where the water channels provide a perfect cover from air surveillance.

ISWAP had dominated these islands since 2021, after the death of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. But water levels have receded this season, opening new land routes and exposing old fishing settlements.

At the core of this escalation is not ideology ? but dominance. JAS, according to intelligence intercepts, has vowed to ?totally eliminate ISWAP presence in the Lake Chad islands?, and seize ISWAP?s lucrative supply corridors interfacing Niger, Chad and Cameroon.

JAS reportedly plans to push further south toward ISWAP headquarters within Marte and Ngala LGAs, a strategic move that, if successful, would reverse ISWAP?s dominance for the first time since 2021. Once ISWAP regroups on the mainland, it will retaliate violently to reclaim the islands. The group has never allowed a territorial defeat to stand.

Zagazola report that the clashes represent a transition from sporadic skirmishes to a full territorial campaign. More ambushes, roadside bombs and abductions along access routes linking Metele, Kangarwa and the Maiduguri?Damasak MSR, should be anticipated.

The emerging trend suggests that both factions will now lunched retaliatory raids on each other?s strongholds, attack supply lines, including river transport. Communities in Kukawa and Abadam especially fishermen, transport boat operators, and seasonal farmers will bear the immediate consequences.

The Lake Chad Basin has always held strategic value a place where borders blur and armies struggle to manoeuvre. But this new insurgent rivalry marks a turning point. For the first time in years, Boko Haram and ISWAP are not just fighting the state. They are fighting over who gets to rule the shadows.

And somewhere in the middle caught between gunboats, ideology and hunger are the civilians of the Lake Chad islands, whose lives continue to be shaped by a war they did not choose and cannot escape. (Zagazola)

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region.

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