I am writing from Paris, on of my way back to Washington. It has been a rather terrible summer for me; terrible because I could not spend time with the people I love the most. – M and M. And, I will be in Washington only for a week before I would start my next trip.

Leaving Lagos was much smoother than I have had it in two years. For the first time since February of 2011, the state security agents (SSS) did not stop me at the airport. In the course of my last stay in Nigeria, I had had to confront the SSS, demanding to know exactly why they had continued to stop and delay me each time I entered into or tried to depart from Nigeria. I was informed by the SSS top officers that the problem had to do with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Since the EFCC initially placed me on Watch List, leading to my detention in February of 2011, nothing had been done by the EFCC to inform the SSS of what happened after – that the courts ordered that I be released. Because of the inefficiencies and corruption in the system, the SSS could not on their own interpret or obey a court order. I believe that the order of the courts of Nigeria should be obeyed by all agencies of Government without any conditions or further approval from outside the court. Besides, I have accused the leaders of the EFCC of corruption, abuse of power, abuse of rights and incompetence. They have sufficient hatred for me to want to make my life difficult.

It is not clear to me whether the smooth exit I enjoyed was as a result of special dispensation or a lasting resolution. It would also seem that the whole detention and delays were in relation to the cases between me and the Embassy of Nigeria in Washington.

Aside from my airport experience, my flight to Paris was smooth and I experienced that usual peace during the flight. It is an irony, but I will admit it – each time my flight leaves Nigeria, I feel suddenly safe and everything becomes normal again. As often as I have done these trips, it is always a fresh experience for me as I go through foreign airports and meet officials who are helpful and respectful. You compare that experience with the human disaster in Nigeria, where everybody is either begging for a tip or demanding bribe. In moments like this, I can’t stop wondering what I should or could do to change the situation in Nigeria. The Nigerians need a peaceful and well-organized society, where things would work as they should.

Beyond my personal experiences, I am gravely troubled by the situation of things in Nigeria in general. We are not finding any political solution to the milliard of challenges facing our citizens. There seems to be some unraveling in nearly all spheres of politics in Nigeria. The state of law and order is chillingly getting worse. And whether we like it or not, what is going on in the northeast is nothing short of a civil war. One must wonder how long such a situation would last before some implosion or drastic shifts and uncontrollable escalations.

The situation in Anambra State politics is frightening, given what we have known about the politics of that state in the past. There has not really been any respite in Rivers State. Like the dog of unjust war, the EFCC officers have been let loose on the Rivers State officials that are perceived to be supporting the Governor.

There is really no end in sight and with each new day, we witness signs of grave and gathering crisis. The apparent break-up of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with several PDP Governors decamping to the new party greatly undercuts President Jonathan’s long-standing preparation to win the next Presidential elections. That only means that the President would get more desperate. And how would that manifest? I have it on good authority that in the past one week the President signed or authorized the payment of 12 billion dollars to the PDP Governors that are supporting him. I had tried to know exactly what that money was meant to achieve. And it seems these were payments that would go to these Governors individually. In other words, this was not some allocation to their states. Obviously, the President had to do this to keep these Governors from turning their back on him as others have done. If the President is doing this to keep the Governors loyal, he must be doing a lot more dangerous things to try to remain in power. There would be a lot more happening and more money being moved to loyalists as vast war chest to fight to stay in power.

In all this, clearly, politics has been compromised and no one cares really about the interest of the citizens. But such situation cannot last long. How far low will Nigeria go before the necessary revival will start? What we have now are clear signs of a failing state. Must we have to go the full course of failure, as seen in Somalia, Liberia and Sierra Leone before things could get better? At the moment, Nigerian Army seems to be the only institution that is intact. Other important institutions, e.g., the judiciary and the police, are in a shambles. I mentioned the judiciary because it ought to have been the last standing institution to hold this country where everything else has failed. Look at India. Look at even Pakistan. When everything else fails, the judiciary ought to play the role of holding the state in tact. But not so for Nigeria.

Even the Army that seems to remain in tact is threatened. It is bogged down in a civil and religious war in the North East. Of course, Nigerians would conveniently avoid admitting that the so-called war against Boko Haram is indeed a civil war where religion is the ideology of war.

Certainly, Christian and Muslim officers would approach this war differently, both strategically and tactically. While a Christian officer would have problem with Boko Haram’s agenda to Islamize the entire Nigerian State, a Muslim officer would probably not have any problem with Nigeria becoming a Muslim country. After all, it was the various Muslim military officers that perceived it proper for Nigeria to join the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC). And presently, a Southern Christian is commanding the Nigerian Army. So, the fault lines exist even in the Army today and how long would it take for the system to crack?

And if Boko Haram were to receive support from Al Qaida, and thus become part of the global jihadist movement, then the fight could become endless and it would only be a matter of time before the Nigerian Army would become institutionally unable to continue the fight against Boko Haram as a united national army. If that happens, then people must defend or fight against Boko Haram with an army that is broken into religious and ethnic groupings, which is in effect the breaking up of Nigeria, regardless of how anyone feels about that.

So, my assessment of Nigeria today is really not that optimistic and it troubles me greatly. I know it should bother you as well. We must continue to watch the situation carefully, and pray if we can.

Cheers!

•Emeka Ugwuonye, Esquire, lawyer and activist, whose photo appears alongside this piece, is based in Maryland, USA.

Update news