Fidelity bank card banner Camano banner

Nigeria, IMF disagree over economic projections

By Chijioke Ohuocha and Alexis Akwagyiram on 04/08/2017

Views: 1,328

•Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun
•Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun

Nigeria and the International Monetary Fund disagree over how much the economy will grow this year, with the government saying 2.2 percent and the Fund opting for just 0.8 percent.

Either would be an improvement on last year, when Nigeria suffered its first recession in more than two decades as low crude prices and oil production slashed government revenues and caused chronic dollar shortages.

The government’s forecasts, seen by Reuters on Thursday, are contained in a document titled: 2018-2020 Medium Term Fiscal Framework and Strategy Paper, which forms the basis for its 2018 budget, dated July 27.

It projects a big bounce back, to 2.2 percent this year, 4.8 percent in 2018 and 4.5 percent in 2019, before reaching 7 percent in 2020.

The IMF, however, is not as bullish, saying on Wednesday it expects Nigeria's economy to grow by 0.8 percent this year, with threats to growth remaining elevated.

"I think that risks are to the downside rather than the upside, but 2.2 percent isn't outside the range of the possible now that oil prices and oil output are recovering," said John Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics.

The OPEC member expects oil production to hit 2.3 million barrels per day and a price of $45 per barrel. It said oil production reached 1.9 million barrels between January and June 2017, including condensates.

Nigeria has promised OPEC to cap its crude oil output at 1.8 million bpd, although it does not include condensates in this total.

The country’s economy contracted 0.5 percent in the first quarter, its smallest fall in five quarters of decline.

The government projects the naira’s exchange rate to the dollar, which has traded at around 305 on the official market since 2016, to remain stable while inflation will decline but remain in double-digits at 12.42 percent next year.

Nigeria has at least six exchange rates which it has used to mask pressure on the naira after a drop in oil price caused foreign investors to flee, triggering a currency crisis.

The central bank has been working to converge the rates through dollar interventions but that is burning out reserves.

"Should there be any harmonisation in FX rates – as encouraged by the multilateral agencies – then an FX assumption of 305 is likely to prove unrealistic," said Razia Khan, chief economist Africa at Standard Chartered Bank.

Nigeria suffered significant revenue shortfalls in the first half of 2017, with interest payments remaining as high as 40 percent at end of June.

The country estimates record spending of 7.94 trillion naira ($21.75 bln) next year, up 6.7 percent from the sum budgeted for 2017 with deficit rising to 2.45 percent as a percentage of GDP.

“In order to sustain spending of anything close to 7.94 trillion naira, Nigeria will need to do a great deal more to boost non-oil revenue mobilisation,” said Khan. (Reuters)

 

Source News Express

Posted 04/08/2017 12:59:14 AM

 

 

CLASSIFIED ADS

 

You may also like...
Airforce plane missing with 13 on board

Presidency orders EFCC, security agencies to end rice...

Presidency unfolds plan for conference of stakeholders, raises...

Weatherman forecasts cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms for...

Police trail ‘one-chance’ tricycle, taxi cab operators in...

Moji Olaiya’s death, a rude shock — Minister...

Abia has no GIS —Commissioner; explains ministry’s inability...

Okowa inspects multi-billion naira Effurun-Otor/Ovwor Bridge

APC hails ECOWAS, Buhari on reinstatement of interim...

Umahi throws weight behind Buhari’s re-election

Atiku not our member — Miyetti Allah •Warns...

Confab special c’ttee increases derivation fund from 13%...

 

Latest News Past leaders to face trial for economic sabotage — AGF Fatunmbi jailed in U.S for $8.3m healthcare fraud, fined $1m Anambra power tussle claims 3 lives Buhari to wade into Minimum Wage impasse Nigerian serial robber jailed in U.K Ogun: Abiodun, Amosun’s loyalists clash over control of APC Secretariat Woman sells own new born for N.5m in Imo EFCC arrests Kwara TV GM, 3 others over land fraud Germany attack: Ekweremadu gets hero’s welcome in Enugu Court orders FG to renew Shell’s licence Ex-wife, children of prominent U.S surgeon found dead in apparent murder-suicide FG deploys permanent secretaries to new ministries

 

Most Read NUDE PHOTO OF OMOTOLA JALADE-EKEINDE surfaces online (530,427 views) Nigerian female sex addict opens up, says ‘I like it with both men and women’ (439,127 views) Shameless Genevieve Nnaji exposes breasts in public (384,106 views) Finally named: The full list of friends of Nigerian female sex addict who prowled Facebook (323,262 views) OLUMBA OLUMBA OBU (the one who called himself God) IS DEAD (290,824 views) Igbo scholar disgraces Femi Fani-Kayode •Demolishes claims on Igbo/Yoruba history with facts and figures (251,517 views) Breaking News: POPULAR REVEREND CONVERTS TO ISLAM in Kaduna (Nigeria) (246,393 views) 10 cars more expensive than Jets (233,755 views) OBJ’s son reported dead in Lagos plane crash •Names of more victims emerge (228,356 views) My wasted years in Olumba Olumba Obu’s Evil Brotherhood (214,586 views) Lagos plane crash: Journalist releases victims’ names (193,345 views) THE FINAL DISGRACE: Igbo scholar unleashes more facts about Igbo/Yoruba history, finishes off Femi Fani-Kayode with second article (191,250 views)

 

CBN milk production

CBN banner advert

UBA Wise Savers Promo

 

Categories Advertorials (3) African Press Organisation (81) Art & Literature (98) Business & Economy (4,407) Business Verdict (79) Columnists (1,097) Complaints & Requests (95) Enterprise & Opportunities (215) Entertainment (648) Features (796) Global Business Monitor (423) ICT Monitor (58) International (3,858) Interview (198) Live Commentary (30) Love Matters (166) Maggie's Blog (387) News (50,341) Opinion (1,332) Pidgin (17) Politics (11,336) Religion (1,088) Sports (2,135) Stock Watch (39) AMA & Al Jazeera Global Update

 

 

 

 

 

 

APO Group Partner

 

 

CLASSIFIED ADS

GOCOP Accredited Member

GOCOP Accredited member

 

 

Africa Media Agency and Al Jazeera