Jamaica, that lovely island often regarded worldwide as the home of reggae, is in troubled waters as I write. It is grabbling with one of the worst environmental challenges of its existence. During the week, on Tuesday specifically, a category 5 hurricane landed bringing strong winds and estimated forty inches of rainfall.

Hurricane Melissa had been foretold, almost to the exact location and time. And to be foretold, they say, is to be forearmed. The tiny island of about three million people, had therefore, mobilized the little resources it had to minimize the impact. Shelters had been put in place, barricades had been put in place, and the most vulnerable had been told to ship out.

‘We are preparing for the worst but praying for the best’ said Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness on CNN on Monday. That is what proactive people do when they have a fore knowledge of an impending danger. But my people in our dear country would rather pray for the best and hope for the best while actually doing little to achieve the best. Proactive preparation is not a culture we encourage unfortunately.

Reading weather signs has always been primal. It was intrinsic to the survival of our ancestors. From movement of animals to studying the skies and the direction of winds, man had always been able to tell of rains and was able to differentiate between a heavy down pour and a storm. Now, science has made things a lot more exact. Information about timing, duration and strength of a downpour, is at almost everyone’s fingertip – as I am typing, my computer is telling me when it would rain in my area and for how long.

It allows the wary to be prepared and helps prevent long term consequences. But are our governments, especially State Governments wary? Are they being proactive enough to avoid flooding and drainage disasters? For example, it has been said that islands at sea level or slightly above sea level might be submerged in the near future. Lagos is on the list. We are yet to be told what the State Government is doing to prevent this looming catastrophe, living in the present as its leaders are wont to do. Instead, indiscriminate dredging and sand filling for commercial purposes seem to be the order of the day.

Many tell-tale signs governing our lifestyle and health always manifest to serve as precautions. They are meant for us to nip things in the bud before they fester. ‘Ogun awi tele ki npa aro ti o ba gbon’ says a Yoruba proverb. (A foretold war will not kill a physically challenged person if they are smart’) The ability to read signs whether of economic, political or personal relationships – and act on them expeditiously – is the pathway to prosperity, peace of mind and even survival. Most political moves have economic consequences and vice versa. And so, when the northern elites rise up against the second term bid of any southern President, it usually starts as political manipulations and the signs are there to read.

Every effort was made to prevent Obasanjo from running for a second term – from impeachment attempts in the House of Reps, to political Sharia in parts of the north, to a near mutiny among his PDP Governors on the eve of nomination. Obasanjo survived but not without eating humble pie. Jonathan who faced the same uprising against his second term attempt, did not. There were simply too many enemies within, too many fifth columnists in his cabinet. Besides, he wasn’t desperate – or savvy – enough to go for broke. But the political fires the north started in order to forestall the second term bid of two Southern Presidents have turned to economic conflagrations that even their man, Buhari, could not contain when he ascended ‘the throne’. Every economic index shows the north as the loser.

But rather than show remorse for the state of its region, the political elites are on the march again, using about the same blueprint of insecurity and destabilization to stop the second term bid of yet another southern President. The signs read that foreign interests might also be involved. Nigeria is simply too strategic, and its potentials too obvious, for certain interests to allow Nigeria choose its leaders without their input. The game plan is all too familiar – discredit, destabilize and then dictate a successor – for those who can read. While they would prefer the ballot box if it is possible, they would not hesitate to organize a coup if that is what it would take. And President Tinubu seems to be sewing up the ballot box option in his favour. So, I expect a bit more destabilization, a bit more turmoil by way of strikes, religious conflicts and insecurity. Already drones are being introduced to the north-east. The question is, by whom? I also urge that we should be wary of a coup by the so called ‘lovers of democracy’ and ‘good governance’.

It is sad that African elites allow foreigners dictate the future of their continent. Some even run to the West with their countries’ economic and political secrets just for recognition and a bit of action in the power game. Yet history shows that these people do not mean well for us. Almost every country with vast mineral resources in Africa has been destabilized at one point or the other. Or at best have their progress stymied. These people manipulate political and religious conflicts to cover-up their economic interests. Political and sometimes Military leaders are often complicit in this destabilization for short term personal gains. Those who have opened the door to Boko Haram, Fulani Herdsmen and political Sharia in Nigeria, are still with us, unrepentant and possibly jostling for power again. They are even now weaponizing the very insecurity they caused for political gains.

The signs are there for those who care to read them. The present system is not working. Too much attention is on the centre. We should have our own Electoral College which makes it difficult for a section to singlehandedly determine who occupies Aso Rock. We should in fact, make north/south rotational presidency a law rather than a convention. But before we do that, we should grant greater autonomy to zones which allows each zone to develop at its own pace. We should discourage Finance Commissioners from converging in Abuja to share the commonwealth but instead encourage inter zonal economic co-operation. It is time to clamp down on religious extremism and manipulations. The choice to go to heaven or hell should be left to individuals and not the State. We should disavow anything that reads like religious persecutions and not give room to situations which allow foreign interests to manipulate the minds of our people using a religious card. Nigeria is a secular State and no better leader to enforce that than a Muslim from a religiously plural background.

To ignore these signs, is to ignore the warning of a looming hurricane. The effects might be disastrous, not only on our infrastructure, but on our survival as a nation. Jamaica has my empathy as it struggles with the after-shocks of hurricane Melissa.

• Muyiwa Adetiba is a veteran journalist and publisher. He can be reached via titbits2012@yahoo.com